Silly Season Analysis Part 2

(Apologies for the lateness on this one, once more. My fear of this post being obsolete tomorrow has definitely diminished my ability to post on time.)

Edit: Well, this aged poorly quite quickly, but I am still holding on to tiny vestiges of hope for Nico. Maybe a move to RBR if Albon shunts completely, but who knows? Anyway, enjoy reading my hilariously hopeful post, and I am really looking forward to working on my analysis of Renault in the next few weeks.

Finally race week again! And before we get the announcements this weekend that will start the domino effect, I wanted to finish my thoughts about next year’s line-up.

6) Mercedes – Obviously, Hamilton is staying put. No doubt about that, and probably for at least the next three years, maybe more. This team is about Hamilton and supporting his run to beat Schumacher’s records, which is both good for him and good for Mercedes. This is why no one has yet to convince me that Mercedes will drop Bottas. He makes mistakes, sure, but he is challenging Hamilton enough to keep him honest and to give good information about the car, but not so good that the team ends up in another Rosberg-situation. Hamilton has proven in the past that he wants priority and doesn’t do well with not being the number one driver. Bottas, on the other hand, clearly wants to beat Hamilton, but has a much more level-head and can handle being told to let Hamilton win or not being the priority. Perhaps this is why he will never be as good as Hamilton, but this also why I don’t see Toto, for all of his investment in Ocon, sitting the youngster next to Hamilton. Especially after a year off, and especially, especially after his behavior the year before, both crashing into Perez and Verstappen. It’s a needless gamble, and I think Ocon will have a seat somewhere else next year to give him a chance.

I did hear a rumor that Danny Ric might be going to Mercedes. I actually think this would be a great move on Mercedes’s part, as he has proven that he can handle a volatile teammate in Max Verstappen and has at least a couple more years than Hamilton if he does well. If not, drop him, and put Ocon in the seat. If this wild fantasy were to come to play, I could see Bottas either going to Williams or to Rally. But, in my opinion, there is no advantage to dropping Bottas the year before the 2021 rule changes, so he probably has another year in the Merc. (I think the Danny Ric move might actually be more likely after Hulkenberg’s response to the Ocon story, see the end of the post.)

7) Williams – They are keeping Russell for sure, but Kubica is a huge question mark. While I’m not in the conspiracy camp that Kubica has a worse car, I do think there are reasons that Claire might want to keep him, particularly for engineering and development. That said, they also need money, and if they can get a driver who brings cash with them, they will probably move Kubica to the development side and out of the driver seat. Possibilities for a replacement are Latifi,, whoever gets dropped from the Red Bull teams, Bottas, or, a long-shot as he is out of a job but has a ton of funding, Ericsson.

8)  Haas – I will be both surprised and irritated if Guenther keeps both Grosjean and Magnussen next year, and with Magnussen still under contract, my guess is Grosjean is out. My guess has been reinforced by both his poor performance and his recent social media activity, in which he has been going through the history of his racing career. Besides that, he has also been posting about the other activities he enjoys, such as cooking, cycling, and spending time with his family. He definitely doesn’t seem like a guy interested in staying, and I think he already knows he’s gone.

If this is the case, who to replace him? If Ocon does indeed get Hulkenberg’s seat, I see Hulkenberg going there. Steiner already said that he doesn’t want a rookie as they are still working on developing the car, and the Hulk’s consistency and general midfield abilities would be a step forward in trying to get something out of the chassis. And honestly, I think Hulk has a better chance of getting a podium there than at Renault right now. Plus, think of the rivalry between him and Magnussen (or more importantly, think of the fanfiction).

Other options include Ocon, Alonso (though unlikely, see below), Perez (also unlikely), Bottas, Kvyat.

9 and 10) Let’s just combine this Red Bull/Toro Rosso mess into one. As has been well documented, the Red Bull program has screwed itself, and I really don’t understand the move to promote Albon over Kvyat if Gasly’s problem was he was promoted too soon (which I think it might have been, or it might just be that Gasly is an average to below-average driver). I will say that I do believe all three non-Max drivers have their fate in their own hands at this point, and their performance from now until the end of the season will determine where they are for next year.

Albon’s promotion makes sense to me only in two contexts: 1) Red Bull already knows how Gasly and Kvyat perform, and they want to give Albon a chance to have the most information to decide the seat for next year. I mean, what do they have to lose at this point? Or 2) They already have a different driver signed for the seat for next year, and just want to give Albon some experience in the Big Boy car. I know there is talk about how Red Bull doesn’t go outside their program, but there have been exceptions in the past and there are a number of reasons why I think it might be a good idea for them now.

If the issue is that they didn’t give Gasly enough time to cook, then they probably want to keep Albon in the oven a little longer as well. They would not have wanted to promote Kvyat at that point, as it might further damage his confidence/Marko thinks he gave him his chance/whatever.

If they have already signed a driver for next year, I believe it will be an older, experienced driver to support Max as his number 2. Perez, Hulkenberg, and Bottas would all be great options, bringing home points, but retiring or leaving in two or three years, when Albon will be ready for the seat. Hulkenberg’s recent post joking about the Autobild article about Ocon going to Renault and him going to Haas lead me to believe that he already knows what he’s doing for next year, whether it is staying at Renault, going to Haas, or in my wildest dreams, moving to RBR. In case people forgot, there was already a rumor that Hulk was going to RBR midseason, and while that seemed extremely far-fetched, I don’t think this is.

Either this or Danny Ric is leaving Renault and Ocon is taking his place rather than Hulk’s. This is the only reason I am lending any credence to the Danny Ric to Mercedes rumor.

And finally, stop trying to make Fernando happen. Seriously, he is a great driver, but Alonso burned a lot of bridges leaving F1, and with the young talent on the grid now, I don’t see any teams wanting to take such a gamble. Not only has he been out of F1 for a year, but he has proven difficult to work with for those higher up them him. Stories from his co-workers and subordinates show that Alonso is probably actually a lovely person to work with – except when you are his boss. I am, however, salivating over the prospect of Alonso one day being a team boss. But we will see.

Well, there you go. These predictions will probably be invalidated in two hours, but I will stay optimistic.

After Spa and Monza, I plan on doing a post about the shitshow that is Renault, why it’s different from other manufacturer teams, and how the French cultural generally and Cyril Abiteboul (or as Horner’s calls him, “Cyril Irritable”) specifically are keeping their team from its maximum potential.

See you after Monza!