Halfway through summer break (thank
goodness!), and I have loved seeing what each driver and boss does with their
time off – so many beautiful beach pictures. 😊 This post took a little longer
than normal, as the midseason bombshell (or mostly predictable decision) changed
some of my thoughts.
There have been a number of excellent
analyses and predictions for next year’s driver line-up floating around the
web, such as Dieter Rencken at Racingfans.net and Formula 1's official analysis, and I hope this one will add nuance to these already excellent
articles. My predictions will focus on factors outside of driving skill; as
someone who knows very little about how to drive well generally, I can only base
my analysis on results. I will leave the determination of who the best drivers
are to someone much more qualified than I. Instead, this post will look at
things like driver personality, team compatibility, past behavior, personal
relationships, and of course, money.
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| Actual footage of me driving. |
The teams are listed in order from what I think
are the most predictable to the least predictable.
1) McLaren – Carlos Sainz and Lando Norris
Having already signed and announced their line-up
for the next year, McLaren provides the most predictability on the grid. This
one was a no brainer, and it was smart of McLaren to sign both of them
so quickly before another seat somewhere opened up to tempt them elsewhere.
Both drivers have proven that they can get results on the track, with Sainz
almost catching Gasly in a far superior car, and Norris in tenth place his
rookie year, a year that has included 4 DNFs, of which 3 were arguably not his
fault. Beyond their on-track performance, the two drivers have excellent
chemistry, playing video games with one another outside of work, and making
amazing videos. Norris has the best social media presence of any driver, and
both will be attracting new fans to McLaren, which might mean more sponsors for
the team. Furthermore, Norris brings with him the large British fan base, though
he has to compete with the other British drivers on the grid, whereas Sainz
comes from Spain, the sole representative (currently) from his country. McLaren
nailed this one.
2) Racing Point – Lance Stroll and Sergio
Perez
When your dad owns the company, you’re not
going anywhere. Stroll has been underperforming in qualifying this year, but making
up for it in the races, coming in fourth in the chaos that was Hockenheim. As
long as he wants to keep racing, that seat is his. Perez brings Mexican money
to the team, important for one of the less financially flush teams on the grid,
as well as experience and stability. While he has had a lackluster start to the
year – currently 16th – the car is most likely the culprit here.
Perez has also had chances to leave before and chosen not to. I don’t think he
would make a lateral move to another midfield team, and I don’t foresee
one of the big three calling him up the ranks. But who knows?
3) Alfa Romeo – Kimi Raikkonen and Antonio
Giovinazzi
Another team that I predict will stay with
their current line-up. Raikkonen signed a two-year deal with the team last
year, and I see no reason why he or the team would want to part ways. He seems
much happier on a team where his job has a higher proportion of racing to media,
and the Iceman doesn’t seem frustrated fighting for best of the rest, consistently
outperforming his car and scoring points.
Giovinazzi is the bigger question mark in this
duo, but I think the team will give him a second year to see what happens. As
the baby Ferrari team, Alfa Romeo has little to lose and Ferrari has a lot to
gain by taking a gamble on another year with an Italian driver who might one
day earn a Ferrari seat. Though Giovinazzi has been underperforming, he did not
really race last year and has been improving steadily enough that unless he
totally bombs the second half of the season. Plus, Raikkonen provides the team
with stability, experience, and star power, but he isn’t the type of driver to
get into the politics of who is the number one driver, giving Alfa Romeo the perfect
opportunity to focus on Giovinazzi rather than Raikkonen. To paraphrase the man
himself, you can leave him alone – he knows what he’s doing.
4) Ferrari – Sebastian Vettel and Charles
Leclerc
With both drivers signed for next year, there
is only one reason the team is this far down: the persistent rumors of Vettel’s
retirement. There are reasons why Vettel might decide to leave F1 – he is
having another baby, he has said multiple times that the sport is no longer
what he loved, he has continued to make mistakes under the pressure of Ferrari,
and of course, his number one driver status being challenged by the young
Leclerc. But I don’t really think any of these arguments point to a retirement
next year. He already has two children, he is very private and good at
balancing home/work life, he seems more focused on his own driving than on that
of Leclerc, and besides, Leclerc’s youthful mistakes have allowed the German to
maintain a solid lead in the driver standings. Vettel’s performance in
Hockenheim proved to me that the old Vettel is in there somewhere.
I don’t think he will make a move until
after 2020, but I do see the regulation changes affecting what happens – he
might not like them and very well retire, but not next year. I do love the idea
of a swap back to Red Bull, which I think would honestly be good for him
(Ferrari seems like a cesspool of a place to work), but the dominance of
Verstappen in the mind of Christian Horner (to be discussed in a later post)
would make it difficult for Vettel,
As for Leclerc, why give up such a good
gig? He will only get better with time, and though extremely hard on himself,
he has an aura of maturity and levelheadedness about him that I think will make
dealing with the hot mess that is Ferrari much more bearable for him than it has been for Vettel.
Now we are getting to the teams where I
think we might see some line-up changes. I know there is a lot of speculation
about Ricciardo leaving Renault, mostly IMO due to fan frustration at having
such a charming and skilled driver on such a terrible team. My thoughts on
Renault as an organization need an entire post of their own, but this is the team
that Ricciardo hitched himself to for at least the next year. He best be
invested in their success at this point; otherwise, what is doing?
Hülkenberg on the other hand is a much more
complex case. His contract expires at the end of this season, essentially
making him a free agent. Both he and team boss Cyril Abiteboul have been
telling the press that they are considering their options. While I believe
there is some truth in these statements, I also believe it is likely that both
Nico and Cyril are attempting to improve their negotiating position going into
contract time. Hülkenberg does have significant reasons for wanting to
leave Renault. His rant on the team radio after Silverstone showed a crack in
his normal laidback persona, frustrated by the team’s failed strategy and lack of trust in him as a driver. I imagine this
rant is also partially due to Renault firmly proclaiming Ricciardo as their
number one driver. Evidence of this abounds, from the salary differential to
the abundance of merch available featuring Ricciardo and not Hülkenberg to the use of team orders in
Canada. While Nico has the personality to be a great number two driver for one
of the top three teams, he wants a podium (maybe too much, as his mistake at
Hockenheim showed), and the continued preferential treatment of Ricciardo,
despite them being quite even overall, must frustrate him.
Of course, Renault has other options as
well. As most people know by now, Abiteboul and Toto Wolff (from Mercedes) has
a handshake deal that Esteban Ocon was going to take the second seat at Renault
until Ricciardo made the decision to leave Red Bull for the French team. Abiteboul
may be looking to make good on that promise, leaving the Hulk out in the cold.
If this happens, Nico will have other options (most likely Haas, which would
make me so happy because he and Magnussen on the same team would be the
greatest hot mess since Rosberg and Hamilton). I honestly see Ocon as the only
real contender for the Renault seat at this moment (though I love Jack Aitken,
but that is a personal preference). That being said, I think both Hülkenberg
and Renault would do best to stick it out a little while longer. As long as the
car and team are performing, the Hulk would be a good number two driver to
Ricciardo and his consistency would help build the team to where they want to
be. My prediction is that Hülkenberg
will stay with Renault. However, there is also a possibility that Ocon (or
Bottas, to be discussed in the next post) will take his seat, forcing him to
look elsewhere, most likely Haas, but in my wildest dreams (I am a fan), he
takes the number two seat to Verstappen. When we get to the Red Bull mess I
will talk more about why I think that would be a great move for the team.
Well, I only got through half the teams
this post, and it’s already longer than I wanted it to be. I can’t wait to get
into the really complicated messes at the end of this week, including Bottas’s
strange predicament, Grosjean almost inevitable firing, and the hot mess that
is Red Bull/Toro Rosso.
Thanks again for reading my thoughts. If
you liked the post, please share! Disagree with me? I would love to hear your
thoughts in the comments.
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